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Edited by TattooedOni:
12/13/2018 1:33:36 AM
63
The first week of Black Armory - By the (DTR)numbers - It isn’t good.
[i] Please read the whole post before you comment. Don’t waste everyone’s time with an ignorant reply. If it’s too long don’t read it, feel free to scroll on to the next post. The TLDR is in the spoiler at the end.[/i]
Historically the player base in Destiny has dipped between new content drops then climbed back up for about a month or two when a new expansion is released then slowly comes back down. In Destiny 1 the playerbase stayed active between releases and millions of players played everyday.
Because of all the changes in Forsaken that are causing players to quit I have been paying closer attention to the player numbers on Destiny Tracker since Forsaken launched. This last week I recorded the numbers every day.
Yes I know Destiny Tracker’s data is imperfect. It’s also the only public player data available so it’s what we have. Because most players will play both PVP and PVE, and apparently Gambit counts towards both totals, it’s not accurate to add the two together to get the total number of players that day.
To me the best way to approach the numbers is to look at PVE as the number of people playing that day and PVP for specifically what the population is (across 3 platforms) in PVP when discussing that aspect of the game.
[b][i]The Numbers![/i][/b]
After adding a ton of new players during Forsaken and giving the game away for free the total number of people who have played the game is up to 13.5 million. That’s a great number, but what reveals the health of the game is how many people are still playing the game.
The last month of Forsaken has been pretty consistent with between 900K-1.3m PVE players a day. PvP has been dropping but not drastically.
[b]Here are the numbers for the last week-[/b]
The last 2 Days of the Forsaken>Season 5>Black Armory:
Sunday - 1.3m PVE - 950K PVP
Monday - 1.1m PVE - 835k PVP
Tuesday Black Armory Launches. The first Forge is the only new content. I was too busy on Wednesday to record the Tuesday numbers but I bet they were in the 1.4-1.5 million range.
Wednesday - 1.4m PVE - 920K PVP
That’s only and increase of 100K players over the weekend before new content, but it is a weekday.
Thursday - 1.2 m PVE - 877K PVP
Okay no need to panic but this is lower than the weekend before new content. It is 200k down from the previous day. Still a week day.
FRIDAY - 1.2m PVE - 899K PVP
This is the day they launch the new raid, the second forge, and it’s the first day of the weekend. It is also lower than the weekend before Black Armory launched.
Saturday - 900K PVE - 630K PVP
I had to check the site over and over again through out the day to believe it. This is a loss of roughly 500k players in three days. This is truly scary.
Sunday - Unavailable. There was an update to the Destiny servers Monday to prepare for an update on Tuesday and I will assume this messed with the API and made it so Destiny Tracker couldn’t pull data for Sunday. I’ve said before I don’t believe that Bungie blocked the API to hide the player numbers, but looking at the data from this week I do think that they have something to hide.
For the first time I can remember player engagement is going DOWN on a week where new content is released.
A lot of people on the forums are dismissive of critics of the games direction. They suggest that people who aren’t happy with the games direction are too casual and should just quit playing. Over the life of D2 the game has lost its 13.5 million total players and is seeing around 10-15% playing daily.
Even if you personally like the games direction these numbers should be concerning when it comes to the future of the franchise.
I’m not saying Destiny is dead. I am not saying Bungie can’t improve the games quality of life and being back players they lost (again).
I am saying that a year ago as a Destiny fan I could not have imagined a time would come where less people played the game on a weekend after a new “dlc” was released and a new raid was out. That happened though. It’s a bad sign for the futures of the game.
Edit: [b]Here are the numbers from reset day/The Dawning Launch. [/b]
PVE - 965k - PVP - 704K
We have all the people from the North Eastern US back now. It’s the reset day. There is a new event for all players not just pass owners. If everyone was busy taking Finals last week and couldn’t play they should be done now. It’s a reset day so everyone should be back for new milestones...I think that covers all the lame excuses I’ve seen in the replies.
[spoiler] Here are the PVE numbers for the last week.
Sunday - 1.3m
Monday -1.1m
Tuesday - Didn’t check on Wednesday too busy.
Wednesday - 1.4m
Thursday - 1.2m
Friday - 1.2m
Saturday - 900K
Sunday - unavailable
Monday - 1.0m
Tuesday reset/dawning - 965k
That’s a 500k drop in three days. [/spoiler]
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4 RepliesThen you realize people don't play everyday. Unless theirs like a loss of 500k+ a day daily numbers really don't matter.
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2 RepliesI understand you are pointing out the numbers are trending down. Personally can you blame people for not staying focused? Alot of people commenting on here (not all) have made the comment that they don't care because they are here to play with friends. I struggle to log on and run things because the Grind is so mundane. Crucible and Gambit are complete dumpster fires in my opinion all though in all fairness I have ran 1 crucible match and 0 Gambit since season reset because of my disdain for them. Dreaming City and Ascendant challenges is like listening to a classic rock station that repeats its playlist every 7 days. This game has lost all appeal to me because baking cookies and playing the COO/EP mash up that is the black armory has zero interest. The new Raid lair isnt even that appealing because some of these new raid mechanics. I am done purchasing anything Destiny/Bungie/Activision related because I am of the opinion they have no clue what they want the identity of their game to be other then profitable.
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1 ReplyOne problem... The player count decreased towards the end of the week for PvE (I won't include PvP because that's not where new content came out so I can see why player counts were lower) The issue with claiming that the drop in numbers are proof that the game is 'dying' is reaching pretty far. You do need to take into consideration that since this isn't a huge content release, it's going to share the trait as any other week. Players get on, by Wednesday or Thursday they've gotten all milestones and forges etc done. So they play something else and come back Tuesday.
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4 RepliesWow. Never seen a “holy shit the numbers are dropping in a game over 2 years old” on a video game forum before. Oh. Wait.
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7 RepliesAll these people that talk all the shit about how "Destiny is losing people like crazy" and "this games gonna die" and "Anthems gonna kill this game" sure do spend ALOT of their time on Destiny forums talking about how the game is "dead." Yall are a pathetic meme.
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1 ReplyIm glad, their biggest mistake was the cater to the "hardcore streamers " trust me, its bad for business and they'll regret that decision.
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When Bungie decides to start making games players want to play as opposed to making games how they want players to play them things will improve. You know, fun games. Grinding to be able to experience new content wouldn’t be so bad if we were grinding new things on the this journey. I’m 622 across all 3 characters so I don’t mind grinding but there are many who do. Bottom line is the game needs to be fun. If grinding isn’t fun then chances are you’re losing or have already lost interest in this game.
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The elitists, sweaties and content creators kept crying for Bungie to make the game more grindy, make content harder, make it impossibly hard for solo players. I play a LOT, I was at 600 on all characters but can't even come close to playing the new content or getting new rewards. Meanwhile, PVP is a mess thanks to genius who came up with that grenade launcher idea. I hope they're happy when they finally succeed in purging the game from those filthy casuals.
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41 RepliesDestiny will be a barren wasteland in 3-4 months. Anthem will be dropping. The division 2 will be dropping. Borderlands 3 will be announced. I can honestly say that I will be picking up anthem at day of release unless their beta shows it's got no legs. I enjoy grinding but it occured to me that all we do is grind to open up new areas to grind for new weapons to make the grind easier. With bungie bailing on story content for the next year the end game is going to be hollow and bland. There's some minor bs, but this major shift to time gated material for a year holds little interest to me.
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I would image as power levelling is not hard to the semi hardcore and above that it will dip soon. In the 3rd week and I have 1 350 and still got milestones on the others. Hope investigate the raid next week before it gets to low numbers again
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2 RepliesEdited by Bieltan: 12/19/2018 10:01:09 AMDaily numbers have been wavering between 1.1-1.3m for PvE and high 800-900k's PvP for quite some time after this post was made now. It appears you jumped the gun.
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1 ReplyYeah, I stopped. I'm not a streamer, I have a pretty hectic life, don't really need this kind of "unfriendlyness" towards solo casuals. 🖕bungie.
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I am one of those returning players. I got a refund in October 2017, watched the game evolve over the last 12 months, then decided to jump back in on pc this time. I levelled 3 classes to 600 (no boosters) and really enjoyed the experience, it wasn’t perfect but a big improvement. However a couple of weeks before black armoury came out I was starting to become quite bored. I liked the look of the BA, especially the matchmade activity, a big selling point for me, so I jumped in. I really like the forges, I’m happy grinding for a decent HC. However I just can’t bring myself to go back to the milestones, I would normally do 90% of them on all 3 classes each week, this is the first week where I just can’t be bothered. There are definitely big issues with levelling and infusion, which I can see being a major drag on the overall player experience, the drop off in player numbers does not surprise me at all. Thanks for taking the time to post the data.
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5 RepliesYou can tell the playerbase is dropping because the only people you run into in crucible are hardcore players with pretty much everything done. No new players, no middle of the road. Just high tier sweats. Destiny can't keep anybody but their most elite players.
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1 ReplyI'm one of the dropped players. Game got stupidly grindy in black armory. Having a full time job and other hobbies ruined the game. Guess bungie don't really think about people who play other games and do other things in life when making content.
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23 RepliesEdited by TechnoKat: 12/11/2018 4:05:17 PMI love how people are trying to shit on you, OP, but refuse to recognize that the only other time DTR didn't display the concurrent player counts was when BUNGiE had them pull the numbers because they had lost over 90% of their playerbase. It's the age of people screaming "fake news" when they hear something they don't like, OP. You just have to soldier on.
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2 RepliesUnfortunately, people don’t consider this discussion material because you only posted evidence (the only evidence) without offering a solution. But the numbers work wonders for me 👍🏼 rip
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8 Replieswe go through this all the time. every game does. i don't understand the point to threads like this. the player base will always fluctuate. it happens with every. singe. game. looking at the numbers for a mini DLC, that has to be purchased separately through a pass, and saying the numbers are low, isn't a good comparison. as usual, people comparing apples to oranges.
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That matches the trend in our clans population this week, thing is alot of our hardcore players were already getting close to 650 (the raiders were all 630-640) so this week their not spending as much time in game. Could be a case of gotten what I want done so I'll just chill in other games. I have to admit the BA content so far is okay just very light on the ground. Hoping it's going to keep adding more to atleast keep me logging in weekly. Honestly the pop numbers don't surprise me the new raid is a face roll once you hit 650 and LW is even easier now due to light level increase. Not much except god roll grinding to be done, weekend players will probs find the content adequate atm.
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3 RepliesI haven't played since the Monday before Black Armoury was released. I've been playing Halo 5 with my kids and KotOR, and in all honesty I haven't missed Destiny 2 at all. I'll probably start back next spring, but right now I'm just really burned out on Destiny 2. It's time for a break.
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3 RepliesI can’t believe they released the raid that soon, what joke that was 🤦🏻♂️ expecting people to be recommended 640 LMFAO!! “but they did it for the streamers.” yeah I know 😡
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Wednesdays numbers PvE - 1.2m PvP - 977k Playercounts seem to be fluctuating more than usual. Weird.
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You can’t draw conclusions from fluctuations over such a short period of time, but since you’re pointing out numbers there were 1.2 million PvE players yesterday and 976,000 PvP. What does that mean? Nothing.
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4 RepliesFYI, this Monday PvE was up to 1.0m. Yes the population surged for the dlc (as expected) and it’s not good that it dropped hundreds of thousands over the course of the week, but two things: 1) Where is the week over week trend analysis? Does it show a typical falloff towards the end of the week and how does it compare to previous first week launches? 2) after the initial hurdle people felt, it appears people got past it and returned prior to the 2nd week.
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Edited by DuplexGorilla53: 12/13/2018 1:28:19 AMIt is simple. There is nothing new to do in the game. Sorry not baking cookies. Game is dead and soon the smell of that will drive away the rest. I don't think even Bungie thinks otherwise. There just isn't any way for it to be helped. They can't make enough content and this is what the game will be until it has the plug pulled.
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2 RepliesThe only numbers that matter are how many people bought the annual pass.
