I agree, there is something afoot regarding drops. Certain things I have noticed and heard that make me suspect it as well. I work in the tech world and have many on my friends list in this field as well and they all share the theories not surprisingly. Imagine that. A couple of them claim knowledge (not confirmed of course, I am skeptical of EVERYONE) that the game is RNG but chock full of modifiers that weight drop rates significantly.
Strange things to support this theory:
- After hitting certain high hour milestones I was getting permissions errors and had to log out and in. Similar to a group policy change. After logging back in, new exotic weapons and raid items dropped within the hour both times.
- Certain drops occur repeatedly after finally dropping. As has occurred with many in my group.
- Similar exotic sets certain people have.
Other theories within my group:
- People get x amount of drops within a certain "dated" time period (not hours played).
- There was a "weapon variety group policy put into place about a month after the game was released. People who purchased certain or obtained certain weapons early (Thunderlord, Ghorn, Red Death) aren't affected by this new policy as much because those three weapons are in the base lock out group.
- There are weapon lock out groups that prevent you from obtaining every weapon to keep you playing. (Personally, I don't think this one is true. Locking a player out of a weapon entirely would probably get them in trouble if it ever got out. I think they just make the drop % ridiculously low.)
I'm a statistics guy and stats don't lie. The way some drops go for some is like hitting the Powerball five weeks in a row. Even two in a row would be unbelievable but five would be impossible. Yet some think it's all chance because it COULD happen. Pfftffttt.... nah.
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I agree with you that Bungie doesn't do it to keep people playing, but they do it to keep things balanced. Imagine everyone running around with a GH on Crota ie. And the loot system just doesn't make sense. The odds of getting the same weapon in 2 raids the same day (I got No Land Beyond) just doesn't add up. It just blows my mind
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When I finally got a Vex after months of waiting. I got a second one when I ran it on my alt an hour later. Since then I have dismantled a dozen. Same with the Dragon's Breath and Plan C. I have dismantled three of each in the past seven days.