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11/17/2014 4:45:31 AM
59
Statistical Analysis: Do players control their own Destiny when it comes to hitting level 30?
In addition to being an avid Destiny player, I am a PhD student in statistics. I was curious about the probability of dedicated raiders finding enough raid gear to hit level 30, so I investigated.
I found that if a player were to complete the raid every single week for over nine months straight (a total of 40 times), they would still have a >2% chance of not having enough armor pieces to hit level 30 (and this is assuming they already have an exotic). If you took a sample of 500,000 players doing this (given how many people have already done the raid, I think this is a conservative estimate), over 11,000 players will complete the raid 40 times without ever being able to hit level 30.
Assumptions, upcoming changes, and possible solutions are addressed in the report. I would skip over the methods sections, unless you like conditional probability problems, in which case go for it. If you guys want, I can post the excel file with the matrices as well. Please excuse the lab-style format; it was the template I had on my desktop at the time.
Let me know what you guys think!
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4 RepliesTldr; just want to throw my piece in. There are people who game the current lockout with multiple toons of the same class. I'm sure this is mentioned. These people, if they aren't doing the delete and reroll, are finishing the raid 6 times a week. Bungie's intended vision was 2x a week, if even that since Deej keeps talking about VoG like it should be a campaign only a 3 stared General could lead a team of machine like navy seals though. I digress. If we look at those 6x a week players, they are essentially simulating MONTHS of VoG gameplay in weeks. Some of these people aren't getting 30. Most of them didn't get 30 in the number of plays it would have taken until the darkbelow would have dropped. Tldr: months of VoG are simulated in weeks worth of play and the verdict is, legitimate gameplay, no one would be 30 before dlc
