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originally posted in:TFS The Floods Sanctuary
4/19/2013 3:54:21 PM
7

7/10 day traders lose money

Multiple sources on these statistics, but I was wondering why is there such a big failure rate in day trading. I been doing a lot of research on it, but I don't see why it can be as risky as investing, because you can keep your positions even if they go down and wait it out, except for futures and such. I still want to day trade, but I know going to a training program is just a scam so I figure I will learn by myself and from my work experience.

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  • [b]Hieronymous' Study of Futures Traders[/b] [quote]Traders who had made more than 10 trades over the course of the year or had losses or gains in excess of $500 were tallied.[/quote] Why is this grouped as a day trader? A day trader is going to have thousands of trades a year. Oh, this was 1969 before computers. Bad study and not relevant. [b]The Johnson Report on Day Traders[/b] Study too small. Not relevant. [b]Odean's study of stock traders[/b] [quote]According to Odean, not very much. Commissions were an important part of the reason why active traders had the worst performance, but the main bogeyman was the bid/ask spread. In fact Odean believes that traders as a group are now doing even worse than they did in the old discount brokerage days because turnover has increased even more. Odean offers the following example: The average trade in his sample was roughly $13,000 in size. Trading through a discount broker, an investor might have paid $60 or so in commissions "round-trip," or $30 for the buy and $30 for the sale. But by Odean's estimate, the typical investor also lost a full 1% to the bid-ask spread -- or $130 on this typical $13,000 purchase.[/quote] Outdated. I pay $7.95 a trade - and that includes both ends of the trade. Bid/ask spread of 1%? LOL. Bid/ask spread is pennies now. Spread on Apple right now is $0.11 - on a $395 stock. A 1% spread would be $3.95. Obviously, we are not in a world of 1% bid/ask spreads anymore on stocks that are routinely traded. Garbage study. In short, the studies referenced suck and are outdated.

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    • [quote]I still want to day trade, but I know going to a training program is just a scam so I figure I will learn by myself and from my work experience.[/quote]I thought you wanted to be an Army Ranger/doctor/aristocrat?

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      • A Good Troll's Free Stock Tip Of The Day: Buy ACTG. Down 24% on the day on harsh selling after quarterly earnings which actually met expectations on profit/revenue. Near 52 week low, PEG ratio of 0.6, foward P/E of 8.32, no debt, heavy hedge fund holding, low short float, strong buy recommendation by analysts. Easiest buy I ever made.

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        • But either way, you can't expect to live off of day trading without about a $800,000 or so to start. If you average 15% returns per year - and if you can manage that, believe me you are good at what you do - that only leaves you with $120k pre-tax each year - and since these will be short term gains, you'll be paying ordinary income tax rates. Some years you'll make less than that, some years you'll make more. You have to be disciplined to save when you do well one year to have extra principal in years you are down. You never want to touch that original principal investment for your costs of living.

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          • Its the same as gambling the more money you have to start the less risks you have to take. You can wait out trends until they are in your favor. If you want to head in that direction save money build some capital so you have something to fall back on should you falter early on when you are experimenting

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          • I wouldn't waste my time with that Kiki. You'd be better off getting a good understanding of risk and diversification, and managing a portfolio. Your wins and losses tend to be more even, and spread over time, and in the end, if you have a good diverse portfolio, you end up with more money. Day trading is for the coke-heads who like to feel the adrenaline rush of the trade. Your odds are better learning the rules of blackjack and moving to Las Vegas (protip: if you play strictly by the right set of rules, you can have a 51% advantage over the house)

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            • Simply put, daytrading is hard to do. It sounds like a great theory in your head ""Ill just buy a bunch of this and it will go up a few cents and I will make 80$"" It rarely works like that. Most new day traders buy stock in a company for no reason other than that they know the company and/or use its products. "Waiting it out" isn't as easy as it seems like either. "Waiting it out" on a bad position means tying up money for potentially months or years. And whatever you do. DO NOT. touch penny stocks. Never. Ever. Never Ever. Don't even think about it. It will be a really short term investment. why? Because you will lose 100% of your money quickly. Penny stocks attract a lot of people. Simply because they enjoy buying large numbers of shares. Buying large numbers of shares doesn't add value to a shitty investment. also As a new daytrader do not even think about margin trading. Don't put any ammount of money into your brokerage account that you are not ok with losing. Because chances are you will lose all of it.

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