Half-life 3 is about as likely as KOTOR 3 at this point. They are classic examples of games being eaten alive by their own hype.
There is so much hype built up around HL3 that Valve knows they can never live up to it.
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We know they were working on it as recently as a couple of years ago, albeit with a skeleton team. We also know that Valve spent a [i]loooot[/i] of money to develop Source 2, which they have successfully accomplished, but they don't seem to be using it for anything at the moment. IMO, they're definitely going to announce [i]something[/i] in the near future, perhaps not at E3 but sometime within the next year. I don't personally care one way or another. I was never a big Half-Life fan and I think Valve is extremely overrated in general. Still... It's become such a meme at this point that I think we would [i]all[/i] be enthralled by an actual legitimate announcement.