There are 122 vaults that can hold 1000 occupants at one time. The U.S. Government in fallout requested 400,000 vaults for 400 million people that means at least 399,878,000 people were left to mercies of the soon to be wasteland at the time of the Great War. Many of these people would die between 2077 and the current time in the fallout universe whether their cause of death be by the many cruelties that lurk in the wasteland or by falling victim to false advertisement and being assigned to a vault designed to fail and to perpetuate the madness of the old world with their social experiments to put it lightly, humanity's legacy of destruction and insanity would eventually find its way into some of the most civil of establishments in the wastes or in the vaults. With some colonies wiped off the face of what remains by the leftovers of old world's war and others in disarray due to the new freedoms granted by the destruction of the old world order, civilization was scarce but still existent and where it could be found it thrived and reproduced. To answer your question, there are probably more people in the waste than those who come from vaults but that comes with the assumption that more people survived in the waste than in the vaults.