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Destiny

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Edited by H264: 4/13/2015 3:11:01 PM
123

That last missing raid weapon - RNG bugged/manipulated/rigged?

So many people cannot get that one last raid weapon. I hear someone in every normal mode raid I do, missing just one raid weapon. For me it's Black Hammer. In 21 NM completions I have gotten 2-3 of all the other special/heavy weapons, but no Black Hammer. I am starting to think Bungie is tweaking the drop rates dynamically to reduce your chances of getting that last remaining weapon. Reason: to keep you playing longer, and/or come back to the game to try again, i.e. keep the hamster wheel spinning. Or: a lot of people are just really, really unlucky. Update: 18 more completions, still no Black Hammer (zero weapons three weeks in a row). I have now completed NM 39 times, I have received 5 Swordbreakers, 4 Light of the Abyss, 4 Hunger of Crota, 3 Song of Ir Yut, zero Black Hammers. Based on my drops so far, if I figure there's about a 60% chance of getting a weapon from Crota NM, and there are 5 weapons, Light, Sword, Song, Hunger, BH, if RNG is fair, there's about a 60/5 = 12% chance of getting BH. There's an 88% chance of not getting it. So to _not_ get it 39 times in a row has a probability of 0.88^39 = 0.0068 (0.68%) - or one half out of 100. That's pretty bad luck! This assumes independent, completely random events, which may or may not be true. And the 60% guess is based on way too few results to be anywhere near accurate. But given those two assumptions, one can then calculate the probability of the series of events of not getting a drop, and plug in various numbers to see how it affects the probability of the whole series.

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  • I know what you mean,I've been waiting for blackhammer now for 9 weeks total doing normal on all 3 characters too..likewise for VOG,I need corrective measure and it's now 5 weeks.. For exotics I just need patience and time and for exotic gear I need 4 pieces.. Do you think the RNG gods favour me?? Nope all they do is tease me and show me everyone else getting thethese weapons i need LIKE look what you coulda won....!!! It's like collecting painini stickers as a kid..they knew they would never release them all so you'd keep buying more sticker packets in the hope that you get that one that you need.. RNG gods and bungie are like..you have to play my game.. And you play it every reset in the hope and say eff this I'm done BUT next week your saying YESH this is my week.. -blam!-TARDS

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