It is all random. There isn't anything you can do to influence it. Just gotta keep trying.
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There has to be something that influences the drops. I've been playing since day one of full release and still can get stuff to drop. I raid every week and still nothing but shards and energy. I'm over the way loot is dropping for me.
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I've played since launch also. Very casual, very few raids, and but I've been lucky on the ones I have done. It's pure luck. The loot system is ALL RNG, and completely beyond our ability to influence. You have a set chance to get any of the rewards from any given event. All you can do is keep grinding.
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That's how rng is.