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originally posted in: Xur - Simple Statistical Analysis
2/20/2015 11:15:55 PM
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Weighted or NLB DB are set to sell specifically on a 4 week rotation. If DB sells next week it'll be the third time it followed NLB. Odds of that pattern being simply RNG with evenly weighted outcomes are 1 in 14^4, and 1 in 38,416 is pretty small. Do I blame bungie? At this point yes, now they're just punishing the people who did buy the DLC. Those who have not aren't giving in now.
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  • I for one refuse to buy any weapons from Xur until non-DLC weapons show up, but that's simply because I don't want to buy NLB or Dragon's Breath.

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  • The probability of either NLB or Dragon's Breath showing up AGAIN is small, but only if it isn't weighted. If it is, then the chance is relatively high. But this is all probability, so anything can happen. We could get NLB 1000 times in a row, but the chance is minuscule. I don't know if Bugie has anything to do with the gear, and I can't really speculate without knowing what their algorithm is. Based on those statistics (and numbers don't lie) I'd say there's a damn good chance that Bungie weighted the DLC weapons. I'm not complaining, simply speculating. Objective speculation, fellow guardian.

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