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originally posted in:Secular Sevens
Edited by King Dutchy: 5/2/2013 10:46:28 PM
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Atheism Predicted to Surpass Religion By 2038

[url=http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nigel-barber/atheism-to-defeat-religion-by-2038_b_1565108.html]Linky[/url] [quote]Countries with the best standard of living are turning atheist. That shift offers a glimpse into the world's future. The view that religious belief will give way to atheism is known as the secularization thesis. The specific version that I favor (1) is known as the existential security hypothesis. The basic idea is that as people become more affluent, they are less worried about lacking for basic necessities, or dying early from violence or disease. In other words they are secure in their own existence. They do not feel the need to appeal to supernatural entities to calm their fears and insecurities. That does not prevent some serious scholars, like political scientist Eric Kaufmann (4), from making the opposite case that religious fundamentalists will outbreed the rest of us. Yet, noisy as they can be, such groups are tiny minorities of the global population and they will become even more marginalized as global prosperity increases and standards of living improve. The most obvious approach to estimating when the world will switch over to being majority atheist is based on economic growth. This is logical because economic development is the key factor responsible for secularization. In deriving this estimate, I used the nine most godless countries as my touchstone (excluding Estonia as a formerly communist country). The countries were Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Germany, Japan, Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom. These nine countries averaged out at the atheist transition in 2004 (5) with exactly half of the populations disbelieving in God. Their gross domestic product (GDP) averaged $29,822 compared to $10,855 for the average country in the world. How long will it take before the world economy has expanded sufficiently that the GDP of the average country has caught up to the average for the godless countries in 2004? Using the average global growth rate of GDP for the past 30 years of 3.33 percent (based on International Monetary Fund data from their website), the atheist transition would occur in 2035. If fewer than 50 percent of the population agreed that religion was important to them, then the country has effectively crossed over to a secular majority. The godless countries by religiosity were Spain, South Korea, Canada, Switzerland, Uruguay, Germany and France. At a growth rate of 3.33 percent per year it would be 2041 before the average country in the world would be at an equivalent level of affluence as these godless nations. If national wealth drives secularization, the global population will cross an atheist threshold where the majority see religion as unimportant by 2041. Averaging across the two measures of atheism, the entire world population would cross the atheist threshold by about 2038 (average of 2035 for disbelief and 2041 for religiosity). Although 2038 may seem improbably fast, this requires only a shift of approximately 1 percent per year whether in religiosity or belief in God. Using the Human Development Index as a clock suggests an even earlier arrival for the atheist transition (1).[/quote]Thoughts? Personally, this gave me a boner. An atheist boner. And I'm not sure why it says that this is a question. Wish I could edit it and make it a....non question. Maybe my atheist boner raises questions. This isn't surprising.

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  • Jesus christ tell me I'm not the one who wanted to throw my computer out of the window after reading those comments on that article

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    • Just a matter of time now...

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    • [quote]They do not feel the need to appeal to supernatural entities to calm their fears and insecurities.[/quote] Higher life expectancy, more wealth, etc. can't calm all your fears. For example: "what will truly happen after you die?" No one; no philosopher, no group of scientists, no project, will ever be able to disprove that there is life after death, even though I admit it also probably impossible to prove with actual science, and you shall always have that to fear.

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      • Edited by Camnator: 5/4/2013 5:42:32 AM
        I'd expect it to happen faster than that. It's cool I guess but I've always been apathetic to what someone else believes. They could believe in a thousand feces gods and it wouldn't bother me.

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      • Edited by Obi Wan Stevobi: 5/4/2013 5:25:49 AM
        I don't buy it. Many rich people are religious, and also some of the most insecure. Belief rapidly drops off with people who have degrees. I think education is the real determining factor. The more you know about how nature works, the less ancient stories of magic you are willing to believe. All the countries mentioned have also been topping education achievement charts as well. When you look at the US, high GDP, also most religious Western nation, it shatters that theory. Outlying data cannot just be ignored.

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      • The 'secularisation' theory is self-evident. Look at the assorted wealthy Sheikhs of the Arab World or the shakers and movers in the Chinese politburo. Do they give a rat's ass about religion compared to the impoverished masses they govern? Religion was a bastion for the downtrodden folk to cling to, given the harshness and brutality of life in centuries past. Now with increased standards of living and civil freedom, we have replaced religion with the pursuit of self-gratification and fulfilment, and, dare I say it, materialism - whether this is for the better or for the worse is entirely dependent on your point of view. T.S. Eliot certainly thought that the destruction of the 'organic lifestyle' would make modern civilisation analogous to his famous 'Wasteland.' And that's the point of view I'm inclined to agree with.

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        • Atheism is a religion. Title makes no sense.

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          • *Compares population growth estimates of Western countries and Middle Eastern countries.* Hint, one's going down, the other's going up.

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          • Eez not beeg surprise.

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          • Good.

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          • Isn't it funny how Atheists bitch to Hell and back about how Christians act like total dicks to Atheists about their belief, yet half the comments in this thread are "That's more like it" "Humanity is now no longer doomed"? Sounds a bit hypocritical. Treating religion like it's a plague isn't justifiable when acting like one yourself.

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          • Good for them

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          • By then, atheism will turn into an organized system and ultimately turn into what atheists wanted out from; a religion.

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            • Truth be told, this idea isn't a surprise to me. I'm not saying religion is dying, not at all. The world has plenty of believers still, but as we advance and discover more, start to advance more in [i]this[/i] world, I can see people thinking less and less about whatever the next world might have or be.

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            • I hate to ignore a well researched article, but, I call BS. Have you guys ever visited the Deep South in the United States? Religion is there and staying.

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              • Seems legit.

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              • Hopefully in the distant future we'll just forget about religion altogether.

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              • Edited by Entraps: 5/3/2013 8:08:06 PM
                Fat chance. I'd be worried if that were true.

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                • Edited by brandorobot: 5/3/2013 8:10:25 PM
                  That's if trends keep going steady. It will definitely surpass religion eventually, but not 25 years, it will be a couple more generations at least I think.

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                • Neato.

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                • All we need to do is control the governments (and thus, schools) and that day can come a lot sooner. Put massive taxes on private religious schools and churches/mosques/synagogues. (notice I didn't say ban, free speech and stuff...) Push science education to priority #1 in all schools, increase money going into schools, increase teacher pay, and remove any existing laws that prevent teachers from countering the religious beliefs of a student with contrary evidence.

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                  • I really doubt that.

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                  • People are finally coming to their senses. (I, personally dont count my self as an Atheist)Im just human.

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                  • oh boy, this thread is going to go well

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                  • To me, that just means that one more unique feature between people will be gone soon.

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                    • There is nothing wrong with believing in a religion but you have to be open minded

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