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11/29/2014 3:07:01 AM
6
dude you are very confused about statistics. It resets each week. the previous week plays no role. You can not exponentiate the initial percentage
you'd get -blam!- at roulette.
source: I taught college mathematics, and now work as an engineer.
English
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This is why I mentioned this idea: [url]http://www.bungie.net/en/Forum/Post/81092499/0/0[/url]
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Edited by Ballzier: 11/29/2014 3:29:05 AMYou misunderstood what he was saying. He said the probability it occurs 4 consecutive weeks. So it is dependent on the previous weeks outcome. Edit: I misspoke, he said the probability that when chest armor goes on sale, it is voidfangs, four occurrences in a row. That doesn't change anything but I thought I should clarify because I think that is where the misunderstanding came. Source: I've taken enough statistic courses in college to make most lose their minds
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his point for the post is to say that it isn't random bc the the probability is close to 0 (basically). that is a false premise. the math is invalid as a proof. that is my point. the fact that it will be a small probability for it to occur four weeks in a row is completely irrelevant.
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Nothing is irrelevant to the statistically illiterate.
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I am having trouble understanding why this is the case. For e.g a dice has 6 sides. The chance of rolling a 6 is 1/6, if the dice is rolled three times what is the chance of getting three sixes? 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6. I fail to understand how that is different than his equation? Please explain
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Im speaking of the probability of it coming up 4 times in a row, not of it happening once, I apologise if this was made unclear.
