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11/29/2014 1:20:25 AM
40
1/1296 so around 0.07716%
(Done by a scientific calculator)
So yea your right. Its almost impossible for that to occur through random chance. So weighting is a probability.
To put it simpily though what the OP is trying to say....
Grab the closest dice to you and roll 3 four times in a row
English
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That's like saying it's impossible to flip a coin 10 times and get heads 10 of those times. That's not how statistics work. That's not how any of this works.
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Its not saying its impossible, its saying there is a chance of less than 1% chance of it occuring randomly. Getting 10 heads in a row is 1/1024 so aproximatly 0.098% so again not a very likley scenario unless the coin is weighted in some way.....
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That unlikely event happens all the time. Stop acting like the odds change. It's 50% each coin flip. The last coin flip does not influence the next. You can't just raise a percentage to a power because you feel like it.
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Yes the probability of tossing a coin will always be 1/2 but that is because the sample space only consists of a head and a tail. When you toss two coins or toss one coin twice you increase the sample space you can now get either hh ht th or tt so thr probability of two heads is less (1/4) this increases exponentially if you were to toss 10 coins... It's not increasing the probability its increasing the sample space
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[quote]That's like saying it's impossible to flip a coin 10 times and get heads 10 of those times. That's not how statistics work. That's not how any of this works.[/quote] Go flip a coin 10 times and get 10 heads then. Is it possible? Yes. Is it going to happen? Probably not.
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[quote][quote]That's like saying it's impossible to flip a coin 10 times and get heads 10 of those times. That's not how statistics work. That's not how any of this works.[/quote] Go flip a coin 10 times and get 10 heads then. Is it possible? Yes. Is it going to happen? Probably not.[/quote] Yes, we both agree on this. My question is what point are you making? As far as I can tell you don't understand how to put two points together.
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[quote][quote][quote]That's like saying it's impossible to flip a coin 10 times and get heads 10 of those times. That's not how statistics work. That's not how any of this works.[/quote] Go flip a coin 10 times and get 10 heads then. Is it possible? Yes. Is it going to happen? Probably not.[/quote] Yes, we both agree on this. My question is what point are you making? [/quote] At this point? That the fact that it was possible didn't guarantee it happening.
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It still happened.
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No shit moron. That's my point.
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Edited by DeltaKnight: 11/29/2014 1:39:31 AM[quote]No shit moron. That's my point.[/quote] You can call me a moron when you get 10 heads in a row. Don't worry, though. The probability of you getting it is somewhere above 0, so you're bound to get it eventually.
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[quote][quote]No shit moron. That's my point.[/quote] You can call me a moron when you get 10 heads in a row. Don't worry, though. The probability of you getting it is somewhere above 0, so you're bound to get it eventually.[/quote] Right here, you agree with me and know that my point is. In the case of Xur that rare event happened already happened.
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[quote][quote][quote]No shit moron. That's my point.[/quote] You can call me a moron when you get 10 heads in a row. Don't worry, though. The probability of you getting it is somewhere above 0, so you're bound to get it eventually.[/quote] Right here, you agree with me and know that my point is. In the case of Xur that rare event happened already happened.[/quote] Yes. I thought we established this in one of the later exchanges?
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I did as well.
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That's my point! He is concluding that it's impossible. I used the coin flip as an example because people have done this!
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[quote]That's my point! He is concluding that it's impossible. I used the coin flip as an example because people have done this![/quote] So? I never said it was impossible, as you keep pointing out. I'm saying that you'd have a really tough time getting 10 heads in a row.
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Yes, and that's my point. How are you not understand this?
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[quote]Yes, and that's my point. How are you not understand this?[/quote] You and I both already understand your point. In fact, we've both understood your point from the beginning. The point you've been trying to make is that it cannot be concluded that Xur isn't random based on an event such as this, because the chance, no matter how small, still exists. [i]My[/i] point was that the chance of you getting 10 heads in a row is [i]very[/i] unlikely. Let's get something straight. I [i]know[/i] it [i]can[/i] happen. However, I'm not going to wait for it to [i]actually[/i] happen, because it would be an act of RNGesus.
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[quote][quote]Yes, and that's my point. How are you not understand this?[/quote] You and I both already understand your point. In fact, we've both understood your point from the beginning. The point you've been trying to make is that it cannot be concluded that Xur isn't random based on an event such as this, because the chance, no matter how small, still exists. [i]My[/i] point was that the chance of you getting 10 heads in a row is [i]very[/i] unlikely. Let's get something straight. I [i]know[/i] it [i]can[/i] happen. However, I'm not going to wait for it to [i]actually[/i] happen, because it would be an act of RNGesus.[/quote] So Xur sold the same item 4 weeks in a row. That's your "act of RNGesus" It happened. Honestly, you have no point to argue. It happened.
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It already happened?
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[quote]It already happened?[/quote] I highly doubt [b]you[/b] went and got 10 heads in a row just now.
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http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rwvIGNXY21Y There you go.
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Edited by DeltaKnight: 11/29/2014 2:42:54 AM[quote]http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rwvIGNXY21Y There you go.[/quote] You sent me a video of a guy who got it after 234 different trials, and did another 790 trials without success. [b]You[/b] did not send me a video of [b]you[/b] getting it. Yes, if you keep on trying, you'll eventually get it. He did the experiment for 9 hours, and only succeeded once. The chances are very low. The chance of you only flipping exactly 10 coins, and getting 10 heads is very low.
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Yes, very low. Still very possible and does happen. That's it. Just because something has a probability of happening does not mean you can conclude that it can't happen. Maybe you understand that the odds are still 1/6 every time? Each event is separate from the last.
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[quote]Yes, very low. Still very possible and does happen. That's it. Just because something has a probability of happening does not mean you can conclude that it can't happen. Maybe you understand that the odds are still 1/6 every time? Each event is separate from the last.[/quote] We've already been through this... It would seem as if you're not actually reading my posts and are just responding as if I had been constantly dodging what you've been writing. I don't think this conversation will ever progress past: "The chance is low. It can happen, but it's unlikely." "Yes, it can happen." "Yes, I said that. The chance is low, but it can happen." "I know. I said that. It can happen!" "I know! I'm just saying it's unlikely!" "But it happens!" "I know it can! It's just unlikely!" That's what this conversation was...@_@
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You have no argument. I already explained this. In fact at this point you're doing exactly what you just claimed I am.
