If xur were actually RNG, which is the assumption, it would be the same probability every week, good try though. I personally don't think it's random.. But I have zero proof. Nobody does except bungie employees.
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Yes its the same chance every week but it compounds. Say its the chance of getting the item is 1/2. Every week the chance of getting it is 1/2. However the chance of getting it 3 times in a row changes. The chance of getting it 3 times in a row is 12.5% i believe, my math may be wrong. The point is that its two different equations. The chance of getting the item will always be 1/2. However the 12.5% decreases every time you get the item because of probability. Go on the terraroa forums and look at "luckiest drops" or something like that. Or any rng thread there.
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I see what you're saying.. I didn't read the last edit. Some people write books on here I never bother reading the whole thing lol. Either way only bungie knows the truth