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11/28/2014 11:20:55 PM
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Whenever you have to edit a post 8 times its never good. You should have just left it at "I don't think xur is RNG".. Then you went into math which is obviously not your strong suit, were promptly shown you were wrong, then got defensive when you realized your mistake instead of owning up. I think a few people have used this analogy.. If I roll a die 5 times and each time I get a 4 what is the probability of getting a 4 in the 6th roll? Think about it.
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Compound probability bro. 7th grade math here
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If xur were actually RNG, which is the assumption, it would be the same probability every week, good try though. I personally don't think it's random.. But I have zero proof. Nobody does except bungie employees.
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Yes its the same chance every week but it compounds. Say its the chance of getting the item is 1/2. Every week the chance of getting it is 1/2. However the chance of getting it 3 times in a row changes. The chance of getting it 3 times in a row is 12.5% i believe, my math may be wrong. The point is that its two different equations. The chance of getting the item will always be 1/2. However the 12.5% decreases every time you get the item because of probability. Go on the terraroa forums and look at "luckiest drops" or something like that. Or any rng thread there.
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I see what you're saying.. I didn't read the last edit. Some people write books on here I never bother reading the whole thing lol. Either way only bungie knows the truth
