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11/28/2014 8:42:14 PM
2
You do realize that probability doesnt change like that. For example if you flip a coin 3 times and all three times it is heads, when you flip the coin a forth time, the chance that it will be heads is still 50%. This means that if he works by a system where it first chooses head, arms or chest, and then the armour piece, there is a 1/3 chance that it will be chest, and then out of that it is again 1/3 chances (i think there are three chest pieces), that it will be voidfang. This probability does not change per week, unless it is put into the programming that if this item has been sold before that now it has a lower chance of appearing (which doesnt seem to be the case). There for every week the chance of it being voidfang is the same, no matter what happened last week. Voidfang just so happens to be what has appeared for these past few weeks. People always take into account the past when looking at probabilities, but we forget that machines do not, and so our calculations end up being off.
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Edited by Truthiness_Inc: 11/28/2014 11:26:04 PMYOU do realize compound probabilities come into play when there is more than 2 options in a series of choices? Case in point, there are 6 armors and 4 weeks of choices. How can you say its a 50 50 chance that the coin would be heads 4 times in a row? You can't because it goes down by 25% with each consecutive flip.
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Thats not how the system works though, it doesnt account for past events, though it is unlikely that you will get 4 heads in a row, it is easily possible, the percent chance of xur selling void fang is not nearly as low as is suggested, we just like to think that it is because we always compound all past statistics together. In the end whether you have flipped the coin 10 or 100 times it is still a 50/50 chance, that will never change. This means that next week xur still has the same percent chance of having void fang again, just like any piece of armour.
