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11/28/2014 8:24:19 PM
2
The problem isn't that your math is wrong, so much as that you're misinterpreting it.
The chance of getting the Vestments four weeks in a row is indeed (1/6)^4 = 0.08%, but that's also the chance of getting [i]any[/i] specific arrangement of four Warlock items over the same span.
That is, there are 6^4 = 1,296 different permutations of items Xur could have offered, and one of them had to have been selected. This one sticks out not due to mathematics but rather due to cognitive bias.
With that said, though, it's absolutely time for him to offer something else for us. As long as that something else isn't Sunbreakers.
English
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Edited by Patient3591: 11/28/2014 10:49:14 PMSort of. Yes, P:HHHH = P:THTH = P:TTTT, But P:HHHH < P:THTH [i]or[/i] TTTT. Yes, any specific combination of four Warkock items is equally likely, but the odds of four of the same Warkock item in a row is significantly lower than the odds of *not* four of the same Warkock item in a row, because the set of [lists of four Warkock items that are not all the same] contains more items than the set [lists of four Warlock items that are all the same]. EDIT: to put it another way, the probability of any specific set of four items is 1/1,296, but the probability of any set of four items that are all the same is 6/1,296 (because there are 6 sets of items meeting that criteria, each of which have a 1/1,296 chance of occurring), and the probability of any set of four items that aren't all the same is 1,290/1296.
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Exactly! Debunked and punked!
