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11/28/2014 12:48:35 PM
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You dont quite understand the maths as well. Take a die and roll it 100 times to see if you can roll four of a same number in a row, theres a good chance you wont. the chances of rolling the same number 4 times in a row will be a smaller than 1/6. I understand the % doesn't change from roll to roll, but its easy to understand rolling 3 in a row will be harder than 2 in a row and so on. Now if it does a random roll for what piece of armor, then a roll on what item you would have a 1/4 chance roll then a 1/2 chance roll.
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Edited by Thatmg7: 11/28/2014 1:03:25 PMYou don't see to understand basic logic. The idea that an item has less chance of occurring the more times you run the RNG is INCORRECT and is what I'm explaining to you and other multiple times. IT IS BLATANT stupidity and human bias to say such a thing. The system always runs the equation and the chance of the item occurring is always the same because under Pure RNG the Equation does not value one outcome over another outcome or previous outcomes. Whatever the actual chance is is meaningless to the basic fact of how a pure rng system functions. There could be a 1/6th chance of the item There could be a 20% chance of item happening There could be other factors like Roll to see if what armour is picked (Hat/Chest/Arms) Roll to see what Class is picked (Durr) Roll to see what Item is picked (Durr) However its actually structured as long as its pure random repeats are always equal chance of happing than non repeats. THAT IS HOW THE EQUATION WORKS. Saying otherwise is human ignorance and misuses of probability. Saying its 0.XXXXX chance is a theoretical vacuum ignorant statement. The very same basic failure of understanding is used all the time to manipulate real world things like X people call themselves belong to a Faith so we need faith schools X crimes happen so blank (ignoring unreported crime) X people are unemployed or figures misused due to "training programs" or "No Pay work not counting" X women agree this product is a good product Kappa :B You can make things appear to be something they're not if you miss use maths. When in actual fact you're WRONG.
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I understand the chances never fluctuate, every item has equal chances of happening during a random roll. What I'm getting at is, in dice games (math is not something I'm passionate about nor find much real world use aside from drug calculations so these are basic examples) in dice, a 2 of a kind is easier to get than a four of a kind. Rolling a 6,5,4,3,2,1 in succession won't be seen 20% of the time even though each individual item has a 20% chance of dropping. Check out this website, these guys sound smarter than you and me. http://math.stackexchange.com/questions/893342/how-to-calculate-the-probability-of-rolling-6-at-least-5-times-in-a-row-out-of On a side note that last half of your paragraph was confusing as hell.
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See it was stated in another thread You maths is correct but Its incorrect theory that has no relevance to Xur. Xur picks items randomly There are 2 exotic per item slot for a class there are 3 classes That means 6 items per slot due to this Xur always has a 1/6th chance of picking an exotic He never is affected by previous weeks Saying the % is lower each time is hideously wrong and a bad application of maths. I don't actually believe its a 1/6th as I posted the way i think it most likely organised. However the actual stat is meaningless to the basic function of how an RNG works. It is always 1/6th chance of occurring next week. That is not less probable because of last weak its is EXACTLY 1/6th nothing more nothing less. Under pure random he could do this shit until 2015 xmas. Highly unlikely you might say but its still possible because the equation is always going to be 1/6th or number of outcomes turned into a % or fraction 10 items would be 10% per item 20 items would be 5% per item etc etc
