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Edited by YahyaTV:
11/28/2014 1:30:05 PM
1
Maths does not escape me. I understand what OP is saying and what you are saying. But you do not understand what I am saying.
The probability that in any given week that a given piece of armor will drop is 1 in 6.
For the same armor to appear 4 times in a row I agree with OPs comment that it is 0.07703%
No, the chances of rolling a six on a regular die 20K times in a row are (1/6)^20K i.e. highly unlikely and pretty close to impossible, but the chances of a six rolling on the 20,000th time is 1 in 6 and every other time.
A question, what is the chance of Voidfang appearing next week?
Is it 1 in 6
or is it (1/6)^5 = 0.01286%
If you think the chances of Voidfang appearing next week is 0.01286% then you suffer from Monte Carlo fallacy, because the correct answer is 1 in 6 (assuming every exotic is weighted equally)
English
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It's one in six, and the week after that it will still be one in six, and the week after that, and week after that too, unless they add another item into the mixture. Though if we continue to see the Voidfang Vestments week after week after week, then it's fair to assume that the chances aren't one in six at all. Sorry if I didn't get my point across in my last post.
