{{
`${userDetail.user.displayName}${userDetail.user.cachedBungieGlobalDisplayNameCode ? `#${standardizeBungieGlobalCode(userDetail.user.cachedBungieGlobalDisplayNameCode)}` : ""}`}}
{{getUserClans()}}
11/28/2014 10:17:08 AM
26
Your completely wrong on your probabilities. You see each week with xur is a new week of probabilities.
Meaning. Just like roulette the probability of him having the same exotic twice thrice or four times is exactly the same each week.
You my friend have are struck with a case of gamblers fallacy.
English
-
No, he'll never have the same exotic weapon two weeks in a row, it's exactly the reasoning you gave is why Bungie has set it to primary, special and then heavy. If they didn't, there could actually be a possibility of Xur having Mida Multi Tool three weeks in a row. If that happened, may god help us.
-
Dude did you not buy the last word and then the following week the mida multitool? There is no order its a myth.
-
Next week will be a heavy, friend. Unless an update is released, then it may go back to primary.
-
The update reset the rotation. They had to have this rotation of primary, special and then heavy in place or else Xur would have the possibility of selling the same weapons consecutively. There is no way in hell they want Mida Multi Tool being sold 6 weeks in a row, people would go bat shit crazy.
-
He's talking about consecutive rolls, not each individual roll. The chances of me rolling a six on an unweighted regular six die is one in six. Now calculate the odds of me rolling a six in fifty rolls. If you want to stick with one in six, then never step into a casino my friend.
-
Gamblers Fallacy is subjective. it is the appearance to the gambler that the next event in a chain of event is more or less likely to happen then it actually is. His math is correct as it shows the % chance of a string of events to happen in sequence operating on the assumption that each individual possible result of each event is equally likely. Say I flip a coin, I have a 1/2 chance that it will be heads. Lets say I flip 3 coins in a row, the chance that they are all going to be heads is 1/8; that is 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/8. Gamblers fallacy would be someone saying "Hey, I got heads 3 times in a row, tails has got to be coming up soon. I mean what are the chances of it being heads again?" The chances of each new flip being heads or tails is 1/2 each time the coin is flipped. What happened last flip does not somehow make heads or tails more likely then the other on each new flip.
-
Do you even Statistics? Good lord.
-
Maths is correct, but only to say to get the same armor for 4 consecutive weeks is a probability of 0.077%, However, each week is an independent event. so the probability of a particular armor piece coming up this week is still 1 in 6. For Voidfang to come again next week, the probability will be 1 in 6 as well.
-
I was only speaking of the chances of getting it 4 weeks in a row.
-
But from Maths you concluded that Xur is not RNG. I think Liam hit the nail on the head with his analogy.
-
This is incorrect, whilst the immediate probability of the item appearing again (or number appearing again in roulette) is not affected by the previous outcome, the odds of something happening repeatedly are the odds of it happening multiplied by the power of the number it times it happens. If your math was correct then betting that something happened once would give you the same odds as betting that the same number on the roulette board appeared 4 times in a row. I'm sorry but your logic simply isn't logical.
-
Edited by Frano89: 11/28/2014 10:35:45 AMYou're now confusing yourself. Probabilities are a totally different thing to odds. Odds are made up of previous outcomes. Probabilities are totally different. Tell me this. If I tossed 10 coins and they all landed on heads. What would you bet came up next? Surely a tails is the more likely to come up? But say for instance I tossed those coins heads came up ten time but a new person came in. That person never seen my first 10 tosses. For him he sees odds of the coin being heads or tails as 50/50.
-
Furthermore the wikipedia page of the exact fallacy you mention illustrates this use of maths:"The gambler's fallacy can be illustrated by considering the repeated toss of a fair coin. With a fair coin, the outcomes in different tosses are statistically independent and the probability of getting heads on a single toss is exactly 1⁄2 (one in two). It follows that the probability of getting two heads in two tosses is 1⁄4 (one in four) and the probability of getting three heads in three tosses is 1⁄8 (one in eight)." I rest my case, you are wrong
-
Did you read on? Now suppose that we have just tossed four heads in a row, so that if the next coin toss were also to come up heads, it would complete a run of five successive heads. Since the probability of a run of five successive heads is only 1⁄32 (one in thirty-two), a person subject to the gambler's fallacy might believe that this next flip was less likely to be heads than to be tails. However, this is not correct, and is a manifestation of the gambler's fallacy; the event of 5 heads in a row and the event of "first 4 heads, then a tails" are equally likely, each having probability 1⁄32.
-
I completely understand that the probability of the next toss is unaffected by the outcome of the previous ten, however, the probability that the same outcome of those tosses will appear 10 times in a row is not 1/2 it is 0.5 to the power of 10 and this is the situation we are discussing. I would refute your suggestion that I am confusing myself good sir, (regardless of whether you believe me or not I am currently in an engineering lecture at the university of Cambridge which is a very maths heavy course) Google how to work out the probability of a coin producing heads 10 times in a row and you will get the same answer I have given you
-
That's the probable outcomes of future tosses though. Where as what I'm saying is the probability of the one toss or in this case the probable outcome of xur's inventory on any given Friday. (Not talking his probable inventory weeks ahead)
-
That does not change the fact that the probability of the item appearing 4 times in a row (which is what has happened) is 1/6 to the power of 4 as illustrated by the wikipedia quote
-
Well this should be more in reference to odds rather then probability then, just because of the nature of it being RNG
-
Well if i have messed up on my probablities i apologise, if you would mind doing the math, probablities have never been me specialty, maybe thats why ive never been good at gentics oh well.
-
He's saying you're wrong by multiplying them. What you're saying is essentially the same thing as going, 'if there is a 25% chance of getting result A, then there is a 100% chance of getting it if I try four times.' That isn't how probability works.
-
Finally someone who actually knows how probability works! You sir earned yourself a like.
-
whats the probability of two red colors in a row in roulette? 50%? three red color in the row still 50%? nope. its 0.5*0.5*05 = 0,125 > 12,5%
-
Haha gamblers fallacy again buddy. It's still 50% each spin is a completely new spin the percentages never change. Seriously. Read up on it.
-
No, Megadeath is correct and you are correct too. Each spin is an independent event so getting red is 50% every time (assuming you ignore the 0 and 00). The [b]chances [/b]of getting red [b]three times in a row[/b] is 12.5%. The chances of getting red [b]10 times in a row[/b] is 0.09% , but the chance of getting red on that 10th time will still be 50%
-
ofc every spin has 50% chance to be red or black but overall probability of 3 red in the row is 0,5^3. Nobody argue that each spin is 50% chance but we are trying calculate the chance of happening 3 red in the row which has different probability. Try to calculate whats the chance of 50 red numbers in the row. Its not 50% for sure ;)
