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Edited by ThePomegranate:
11/28/2014 8:00:41 PM
298
To everyone saying that Xur is Rng... He's not, and heres your proof.
The chances of him being Rng are astronomical.
The proof: Voidfang vestments
There are 6 types of armor exotics for the Warlock: 1/6 chance of getting the voidfangs, or roughly 16.66%
Now to get the probability of this happening 4 times in a row, we simply take 0.1666 (16.66% in its decimal form) and put it to the power of 4.
So what does 0.1666 * 0.1666 * 0.1666 * 0.1666 get us: 0.0007703
Now converting 0.0007703 to a percent we get: 0.07703% chance (roughly) of getting the voidfang 4 WEEKS IN A ROW.
I'M SPEAKING OF THE MATH OF GETTING IT FOUR WEEKS IN A ROW NOT ON A WEEK BY WEEK BASIS.
We can from this data assume that Xur is not RNG.
Conclusion: Bungie enjoys taking baths in the salty tears of Warlocks.
Edit: Well a few people seem to have a problem with my math, so if you do, would you mind posting something correct. Aswell as I did not take into account that some items may be weighted more then others.
Edit 2: In response to everyone saying that I was to quick to jump the gun that Xur is not RNG, well you are right, there is still a chance that it may of in fact happened, but i stand by the fact that there is a 0.07703% chance of this happening, so i assumed that this would not of happened.
Edit 3: Number 1: Yay look at us being all fancy and trending
Edit 4: Trying to maybe sleep but so many buzzing phone notifications
Edit 5: someone brought up the point that one of the multiple factors may be to decide between arms, chest, and helm, then decide between exotics which does make some sense for the sun-breakers incident.
but this brings the chances down even lower: around 0.01928125% chance
Edit 6: If anyone from bungie reads this would you be able to confirm or deny the randomness of Xur?
Edit 7: back from school
Edit 8: It has come to my attention that some people may be misunderstanding my work, I'm not saying the probability of him getting the voidfang this week is 0.077% I'm saying the probability that he were to sell Voidfang 4 weeks in a row is 0.077% (Assuming he sells all exotic armor, and that all are weighted evenly, which i either believe some are weighted more, or its pre-chosen!)
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Same goes for Titan chest piece, 3 out of 4 weeks now. Probability of me getting a titan helmet 0. I have done the raid on both normal and hard have had 5 chest and 4 boots.
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3 RepliesA sample size of only 13 weeks of selling is nowhere near enough to prove anything of significance
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2 RepliesIs this probability within your confidence interval?
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Xur's rng is like the iPod's and iTunes' shuffle, it plays a certain song multiple time, and then out of the blue it selects something you haven't heard in awhile...a happy encounter
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1 ReplyHere's the thing. There is STILL A CHANCE. So yes. It is random. You're just another whiner.
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I already got praxic fire so idgaf haha
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4 RepliesI think xur is probably supposed to be rng.... However whoever coded him should be shot.
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2 RepliesActually I think your math is right (You can't be sure there is equal weight to the probabilities though, that would change math a bit) Either way probably pretty unlikely to go four in a row But what you are missing is that in any diverse random data set there will always be unlikely patterns cropping up all the time. You saw one pattern and did the numbers and yes it is indeed individually unlikely, but the Hunter Titan Engram and Weapon patterns have not been unusual at all recently. You calculated the chance of four straight voidfangs on these four specific weeks. But the chance of at least one of these items going four in a row at some point in the first 3 months of the game is relatively good. Too bad for warlocks they drew the short straw!
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1 ReplyI agree with you. Not to mention this happened with Sunbreakers as well.
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I don't care. From what I've read, Praxic Fire is not in the rotation. Bungie ought to let Xur sell it next week. I know it's all just bad luck, but this is pure bs.
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And also, someone else pointed out that any string of numbers have an equally decreasing likelihood of occurring in that order. If it's 1-1-1-1-1 or 1-2-3-4-5 or 1-1-3-4-2. The math will always work out to the same chance of that string occurring in that order. Clearly whoever bet on all voidfang, won the pot at the Bungie office. I'm still willing to accept that the tables are weighted. But why, I don't know... There's no reason for him to sell one item more often than another, unless the devs have some really odd plans for what gear we use or their just trolls. If we take all the Xûr items over the next 10 years, we might start seeing statistical averages. Maybe.
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5 RepliesThe guns change every week but not the armor? Bungie what's up with that?
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I get what you are saying but thats the problem with 'probability' vs 'chance'. Imagine those 6 armour items were lottery balls. All 6 have the same chance of being blindly chosen. Now take one out and put it back. Does that change anything about the chance that it could be picked again? No. You still have 6 balls all equal to each other, and each still has the same chance of being chosen next. The nunbers 1 to 6 have the same chance of being drawn on the lotto than any other combination of numbers, but we say its probability is low. And why? Because we drew numbers on them. Doesn't seem fair does it, poor balls. I got Voidfang (again) last night from Nightfall, but I have the same chance of getting any other item.
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He's not RNG. He's another balancing mechanism.
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4 RepliesKinda like me getting the same gun from the nightfall 3 weeks running... Lol... *sigh*
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Xur is clearly not random....and if he was, what does this prove/contribute?
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What if each time Xur sells something, it adds a bit of weight onto said item? Just a theory
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This does not prove that xur is not rng. Each time xur picks armour there is a 1/6 chance of any piece of armour being chosen. Random chance does not remember the previous result. Sometimes random chance screws you over. You know this if you've ever played a tabletop rpg and rolled all 1s. On a side note I think xur should be rng but make him choose something he has not picked until everything has been picked. After everything has been picked start the cycle again.
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It actually 1 out of 6 items. Its like rolling 4 times in a row a 6 on the dice which is more then possible and can be trully pure randomness. Same arandomness like I got 4 Universal remotes in a row from exotic weapon drops.
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23 RepliesEdited by YahyaTV: 11/28/2014 11:06:13 AM[b]Each week is an independent event and is irrelevant to what has appeared previously. so the probability of a particular armor coming up in a given week will always be 1 in 6 (unless more armor is added to Xurs inventory.)[/b]
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That's not how percentages work bud. You still have the SAME amount of chance of the SAME item being sold after the first time. It's random.
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3 RepliesYour numbers may be slightly off, but the calculations you did are correct. Ignore the stupid people
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The tennessee vols lost the coin toss 11 games in a row from 2013 -2014 seasons. That's a .049% chance of occurring. That's a real life example that happened recently.
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1 ReplyIt means that Xur rolled a die and got the same number 4 times in a row. That's it. Every week is it's own isolated incident, just as every roll of a die is an isolated incident. There is no outside force acting on the die or on Xur that makes either less likely to roll the same thing as the time before. Every week Xur picks a random exotic for every class. There are 6 to choose from. There's no conspiracy here. It's just bad luck.
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2 RepliesSigh, even though the math might be correct, it still doesn't say anything. The chances of A-A-A-A happening is just as big as A-B-C-D.
