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Edited by ThePomegranate:
11/28/2014 8:00:41 PM
298
To everyone saying that Xur is Rng... He's not, and heres your proof.
The chances of him being Rng are astronomical.
The proof: Voidfang vestments
There are 6 types of armor exotics for the Warlock: 1/6 chance of getting the voidfangs, or roughly 16.66%
Now to get the probability of this happening 4 times in a row, we simply take 0.1666 (16.66% in its decimal form) and put it to the power of 4.
So what does 0.1666 * 0.1666 * 0.1666 * 0.1666 get us: 0.0007703
Now converting 0.0007703 to a percent we get: 0.07703% chance (roughly) of getting the voidfang 4 WEEKS IN A ROW.
I'M SPEAKING OF THE MATH OF GETTING IT FOUR WEEKS IN A ROW NOT ON A WEEK BY WEEK BASIS.
We can from this data assume that Xur is not RNG.
Conclusion: Bungie enjoys taking baths in the salty tears of Warlocks.
Edit: Well a few people seem to have a problem with my math, so if you do, would you mind posting something correct. Aswell as I did not take into account that some items may be weighted more then others.
Edit 2: In response to everyone saying that I was to quick to jump the gun that Xur is not RNG, well you are right, there is still a chance that it may of in fact happened, but i stand by the fact that there is a 0.07703% chance of this happening, so i assumed that this would not of happened.
Edit 3: Number 1: Yay look at us being all fancy and trending
Edit 4: Trying to maybe sleep but so many buzzing phone notifications
Edit 5: someone brought up the point that one of the multiple factors may be to decide between arms, chest, and helm, then decide between exotics which does make some sense for the sun-breakers incident.
but this brings the chances down even lower: around 0.01928125% chance
Edit 6: If anyone from bungie reads this would you be able to confirm or deny the randomness of Xur?
Edit 7: back from school
Edit 8: It has come to my attention that some people may be misunderstanding my work, I'm not saying the probability of him getting the voidfang this week is 0.077% I'm saying the probability that he were to sell Voidfang 4 weeks in a row is 0.077% (Assuming he sells all exotic armor, and that all are weighted evenly, which i either believe some are weighted more, or its pre-chosen!)
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Nice math and thought behind this assumption. But this only applies if you look at it as 4 weeks and not as week by week. If that were the case If you're looking at a clump of weeks rather then one by one I would suggest looking at EVERY week xur has ever sold. Keep dating back and count them up because you can't just choose 4 weeks and say it's not possible! Either is Week by Week or Beginning of time for Xur. That's the choices here and if it's from the beginning.. xur can be dated back 3 years + in which case it doesn't sound unreasonable for him to sell them 4 weeks in a row (Also he sold 2 then sunbreakers and then 3 not 4 in a row http://destiny.wikia.com/wiki/X%C3%BBr/Visit_History) If you look at it at a week by week basis then technically everything has an equal chance to be sold and it would make perfect sense that something could be sold 3 times in a row if you looked at my algorithms in my topic. Giving items multiple "Roll numbers" would mean they have greater chances. If VV had 5 chances same as the rest then each week it is possible to roll 3 of those needed numbers to get the item to be sold. It isn't that hard to believe it could be sold 3 times in a row. But if you look at the percentage of it being sold 3 weeks in a row and only those 3 weeks you will see a slim percentage but thats on the basis xur was only ever around for 3 weeks and that the game knows what the past week sold. If that was the case then bungie could easily implement a "wall" that prevented such things happening but since it works week by week (That's what I believe) there is no such thing needed.
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Dlc comes out with several new exotic armors.... xur sells voidfang...fml man fml. But seriously that's pretty dumb
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That's not how math works.
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Maybe warlocks are just that lucky
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Well I belive/hope that Xur is RNG. The alternative is then that someone from bungie picks his inventory every week, and decides to put some of the same things week after week. It would be one thing if say Sunbreakers showed up a few times but with weeks in between before showing again but 3-4 weeks in a row? What would be the rationale for this? Now if we believe its RNG how can you explain getting items for weeks in a row? Why do the numbers for each item have to be the same? IE: sunbreakers has a higher chance of appearing then skull, therefore its appeared more. Would be nice for bungie just to tell us which it is.
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Black helicopters
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2 Replies"Numbers don't lie, sir. Politics, poetry, promises - those are lies! Numbers are as close as we get to the handwriting of God." - Dr. Gottlieb, Pacific Rim
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My wife is a data analyst, along with many of our friends. Statistics for a living, basically. Using elementary school math to debunk or simplify RNG is like hiring a fish in a suit to interrogate a toaster during a murder trial.
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Your math is flawed.chance of a coin to flip heads or tails is 50%,you could flip a coin 100 times and get 90 heads 10 tails plus not all exotics are of equal value so that would be different again
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Xur should sell the Heart of the Praxic Fire. That is the only Warlock Exotic I need
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1 ReplyIf the Cleveland Cavaliers can get 3 #1 picks in the span of 4 years, I can believe that Xur's loot is RNG. Sucks too because I really want that Praxic Fire..
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1 ReplyThe chance doesn't decrease each week. So, no.
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1 ReplyWell some of the people that have posted on here are a little slow...... Each time you flip a coin the odds are 50% either way. True. The next time you flip it the odds are again 50% either way. True. Flip 4 coins though? Are the odds of all 4 landing on heads 50%? This is not saying that chance has a memory it says that the odds of xur selling 4 of the same item using rng is less than 1% Its compiled data rather than a singularity!
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Edited by TheBeezNeez81: 12/1/2014 2:54:05 AMI wish I had a link, but apparently there is one guy at Bungie that selects the exotics. DeeJ has said this, apparently. What he bases his criteria for choosing the exotics each week.... who knows. But, he probably smokes a huge bowl first and then chooses. Perhaps he drops a few hits of acid as well.
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Percentages have no memory
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Bungie has already confirmed that Xur's inventory is indeed not RNG. The interview took place in late September - early October. I have no desire to search for the video as I have already watched it. If you do not believe me, that's totally fine by me. The video exists somewhere on these forums. Take a gander for yourselves.
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Xur only sell armamentarium for titan now as well, if only I could have bought a titan helm earner :(
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1 ReplyProbability has no memory.
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6 RepliesYou're the reason casino's put up the "last ten numbers spun" board at the roulette table. Too stupid to understand that the odds of every single turn of the wheel are exactly the same no matter what the previous turns were. But go ahead and bet those numbers, there's no way that "0" hits again....
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There are a lot of sad stat teachers out there. Try this: http://www.edcollins.com/backgammon/diceprob.htm
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# nothowtousemath
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11 RepliesLet us take this to a more binary level... If you flip a coin and it lands on heads ten times in a row, do you know what the probability is that it will land on heads an eleventh time? 50%. It doesn't matter how many times it lands on heads, the probability it will ever come up heads is 50%. No amount of calculations or finagling the numbers will ever change this probability. The same thing happens with a six sided dice. No matter how many times it comes up on a six, the next time you roll it, it has a 16.67% of coming up a six.
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*Sigh* Look up the Gambler's Fallacy. You have proved nothing.
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One explanation may be that the items could be weighted differently. Some items may have a higher probability of appearing when compared to one another. My guess though, it would have to be that they have specifically chosen certain items to be sold at a given time to complement the activities or events that come up periodically. For example, people might not see the use of a certain item one week but the next week during IB it becomes a game changer. Like the gally.
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Well calculated sir, how anyone could think he was RNG though even before this post I have no idea... Suros got sold again purely because everyone moaned it was OP and they didn't get it first time round
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Bungie said it in a video that they have the ability to choose his selection.
