Yes, they're unlock keys.
They are keys that unlock your ability to download the expansions when they're released without having to buy them again.
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According to everything I've heard, The expansions [i]are[/i] the unlock keys, that's the point. You don't download the expansion you just download the key and you can play the "expansions" already on the disc.
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Instead of basing your beliefs on hearsay, you should probably look into it a little deeper and try applying logical thought processes to it. You don't download the expansion because it hasn't been released yet. There's[i] nothing[/i] to download yet. MS's servers simply have a placeholder key that tells the game and MS themselves that you've paid for it.
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A good point. And sadly one that will probably go unheard.