Use logic, feats, and stats.
Assume firepower and shields are equalized.
The First Order has StarKiller.
The Covenant have High Charity.
The galaxy's are merged. Covenant on one side, First Oder at the other.
Both at their peaks.
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I am in favour of the covenant winning. Elites are honour driven, faster, stronger, and smarter than humans. [spoiler]Also wort[/spoiler]