That's really not the way probability works in practice. There are 30 exotic weapons. Assuming an equal drop chance for each (I'm not claiming there IS an equal drop chance, I'm just assuming one for this example), and assuming at least 2 million players, it is literally statistically guaranteed that some players would not get a particular weapon on the first 200 chances. Is that the average result? Of course not. But that's because the average is made up of all the combined outliers. I'm on XBL, so I'll use Gjallarhorn for my anecdote. I've been playing less than 2 months and have two gjallarhorns. I got one from my 5th ever nightfall, and one from my second ever VoG. I got Vex Mythoclast from my third ever VoG. Yet there are lots of day 1 players who still don't have either. That's RNG.