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7/24/2015 6:30:51 PM
2
Id try to explain how RNG works, but it sounds like your ears are already full.
English
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The "R" in RNG is not equally weighted. For a simple example: if there were only 10 total exotics in the game, and Hawkmoon was one of them, one would expect to get one on average every 10 drops. But if the system is rigged so that Hawkmoon only has a 1% chance of dropping, and the other 9 a 11.1% chance of dropping, they can keep you chasing it for a long time. Then, once you get it once, the odds to get it again can be reset to 10%, enhancing your odds of getting it again sooner. So while it is still random, the system is rigged to keep people chasing longer.
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That's really not the way probability works in practice. There are 30 exotic weapons. Assuming an equal drop chance for each (I'm not claiming there IS an equal drop chance, I'm just assuming one for this example), and assuming at least 2 million players, it is literally statistically guaranteed that some players would not get a particular weapon on the first 200 chances. Is that the average result? Of course not. But that's because the average is made up of all the combined outliers. I'm on XBL, so I'll use Gjallarhorn for my anecdote. I've been playing less than 2 months and have two gjallarhorns. I got one from my 5th ever nightfall, and one from my second ever VoG. I got Vex Mythoclast from my third ever VoG. Yet there are lots of day 1 players who still don't have either. That's RNG.
