JavaScript is required to use Bungie.net

Service Alert
Destiny 2 will receive an update tomorrow. Players will be required to log in to Destiny 2 again after installing the update. Please stay tuned to @BungieHelp for updates.

Destiny

Discuss all things Destiny.
Edited by H264: 4/13/2015 3:11:01 PM
123

That last missing raid weapon - RNG bugged/manipulated/rigged?

So many people cannot get that one last raid weapon. I hear someone in every normal mode raid I do, missing just one raid weapon. For me it's Black Hammer. In 21 NM completions I have gotten 2-3 of all the other special/heavy weapons, but no Black Hammer. I am starting to think Bungie is tweaking the drop rates dynamically to reduce your chances of getting that last remaining weapon. Reason: to keep you playing longer, and/or come back to the game to try again, i.e. keep the hamster wheel spinning. Or: a lot of people are just really, really unlucky. Update: 18 more completions, still no Black Hammer (zero weapons three weeks in a row). I have now completed NM 39 times, I have received 5 Swordbreakers, 4 Light of the Abyss, 4 Hunger of Crota, 3 Song of Ir Yut, zero Black Hammers. Based on my drops so far, if I figure there's about a 60% chance of getting a weapon from Crota NM, and there are 5 weapons, Light, Sword, Song, Hunger, BH, if RNG is fair, there's about a 60/5 = 12% chance of getting BH. There's an 88% chance of not getting it. So to _not_ get it 39 times in a row has a probability of 0.88^39 = 0.0068 (0.68%) - or one half out of 100. That's pretty bad luck! This assumes independent, completely random events, which may or may not be true. And the 60% guess is based on way too few results to be anywhere near accurate. But given those two assumptions, one can then calculate the probability of the series of events of not getting a drop, and plug in various numbers to see how it affects the probability of the whole series.

Posting in language:

 

Play nice. Take a minute to review our Code of Conduct before submitting your post. Cancel Edit Create Fireteam Post

View Entire Topic
  • Bro I was with you. I beat crota 3 times a week since it dropped and only recently acquired mine. I didn't get a praetorian foil until after TDB. Guess what. It's going to be ok.

    Posting in language:

     

    Play nice. Take a minute to review our Code of Conduct before submitting your post. Cancel Edit Create Fireteam Post

You are not allowed to view this content.
;
preload icon
preload icon
preload icon