Most of us are blinded by the holiness of RNGsus. But I'm a sceptic and a non-believer, so I have a theory of why YOU wont get a certain weapon, but others will.
Now, we all think that it's all based on RNG, but I don't really think so. I do understand the concept of randomness, but I don't believe that's a fact in this concern.
I am gonna use two examples:
Player 1:
- has Thunderlord and Gjallarhorn
- want Ice Breaker and SUROS
Player 2:
- has SUROS and Ice Breaker
- want Thunderlord and Gjallarhorn
Player 1 and 2 keeps on grinding for their wanted weapons, but usually get random crap drops. And to top that, they get multiple drops of the exotics they already have. (like me, i've gotten 3 No Land Beyond from Crota)
And this is where my theory comes in...
Bungie has a system (fixed RNG), that basicly makes it (nearly) impossible for you to get the weapons you are missing. It's like your profile is assigned to certain weapons. Me, I get SUROS all the time.
So a simple example for this system would be:
"Drops assigned to Player 1: Thunderlord, Gjallarhorn etc" (these are the drops always handed out)
"Drops avoided for Player 1: Ice Breaker, SUROS, etc" ( these are the drops that might never happen)
(same with Player 2,3,4,5,6,7, infinity)
I know there are many RNGsus followers out there, and by all means, praise him! But me, I'm not fooled by this non-sense anymore. Just like anything else, Bungie likes to control the community, so they control RNG as well.
Yeah, I know, Bungie started selling Ice Breaker, which was hard to get for many of us. But that was also their decision. Why do you think it became available shortly after CE? To soothe the masses to keep them playing.
Conclusion: Players will always get the same drops, and will most likely never get that one thing they are missing (in my case Gjallarhorn).
Hope i made sense. I've been thinking about this for a long time, but never been able to put a word to it. Maybe i wasn't able now either... I might be wrong, but I'm sure my points makes it clear enough.
[b]*edit 1*[/b]
I see many say they have all Exotics, and asks me to explain that. Well, that's cause Bungie decided that your profile, amongst others, could. That's why.
[b]*edit 2*[/b]
*sigh* This wasn't actually meant to be a post about weapons never dropping, cause they can. It's just that it is controlled by Bungie. Sure, some of you have played for 500 hours and finally gotten a certain weapon. But because the community is continously growing, Bungie decides to hand out X amount of, ie, GHs a day, but still manage to control the weapon flow.
[b]*edit 3*[/b]
People seem to be believe I'm saying stuff never drops. If it says that somewhere in my post (I've tried to reword myself), that's not what I'm saying. Please, read my post over again, especially "edit 2".
[b]*edit 4*[/b]
Well, I expected a lot of flaming since my so called theory is far fatched, flawed and simply crappy :P
I've tried my best to answer most posts I've seen fit. Thankfully most have been serious posts. Some not.
I am now going to get a beer and my whisky bottle, sit down, and play some Strikes. Will check in later to see if this is still alive.
Hopefully I will prove myself wrong and get GH tonight... hrhrhhr
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I don't have Suros, Red Death, the Vex, or SGA.
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I've got every exotic available on xb1 , it took 900 hours to get gjallarhorn . Which was about 3 weeks ago :)
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I agree, there is something afoot regarding drops. Certain things I have noticed and heard that make me suspect it as well. I work in the tech world and have many on my friends list in this field as well and they all share the theories not surprisingly. Imagine that. A couple of them claim knowledge (not confirmed of course, I am skeptical of EVERYONE) that the game is RNG but chock full of modifiers that weight drop rates significantly. Strange things to support this theory: - After hitting certain high hour milestones I was getting permissions errors and had to log out and in. Similar to a group policy change. After logging back in, new exotic weapons and raid items dropped within the hour both times. - Certain drops occur repeatedly after finally dropping. As has occurred with many in my group. - Similar exotic sets certain people have. Other theories within my group: - People get x amount of drops within a certain "dated" time period (not hours played). - There was a "weapon variety group policy put into place about a month after the game was released. People who purchased certain or obtained certain weapons early (Thunderlord, Ghorn, Red Death) aren't affected by this new policy as much because those three weapons are in the base lock out group. - There are weapon lock out groups that prevent you from obtaining every weapon to keep you playing. (Personally, I don't think this one is true. Locking a player out of a weapon entirely would probably get them in trouble if it ever got out. I think they just make the drop % ridiculously low.) I'm a statistics guy and stats don't lie. The way some drops go for some is like hitting the Powerball five weeks in a row. Even two in a row would be unbelievable but five would be impossible. Yet some think it's all chance because it COULD happen. Pfftffttt.... nah.
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^this
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3 thunderlords no gallys to drop for me :(
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I've had everything but the 4th Horseman and Necrochasm now. Seems pretty random from where I am.
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I completely agree! I feel that individual players have a predetermined higher probability to receive certain loot than others... Which explains odd reoccurrence of repeat drops
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Definitely pretty weird. And it happens more often than you would think
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I have everything exept for Necrochasm........... (Xbox One user)
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I believe it's weighted random where when you get an exotic your chances of getting it again increase and the likelihood of getting stuff you don't have decreases
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Yup. I get Fang and TLW all the time, another in my fireteam gets WoC and Ghorn all the time. I just need WoC and I never want to do CE again...
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All I need is Thunderlord, Ghorn, and hawkmoon. Swear I'll never get them
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I agree, I only get WoC and crux of Crota from the raid and my friend only gets the helmet and fang from the raid.
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Sometimes I feel this may be true. I have gotten multiple Midas, IBs, and G-horns. Want Suros and Thunderlord. Oh well.
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Until last week I would have agreed with this. Then I got 2 hard lights, thunder lord, universal remote, crest of alpha lupi, and don't touch me, in a 6 hour span. Had never had any of them before except universal remote. Which is crap BTW.
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I can't get thunderlord or suros :(
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You may be on to something. In all my playtime I've received 3 MIDA Multi-Tools 3 Icebreakers, 3 Hard Lights, and 3 No Land Beyonds, 3 Masks of the Third Man, and probably multiples of other exotics that I can't recall. I have had Gjallarhorn drop one time (Thank Odin!), and have never had the Suros Regime or Red Death drop.
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I've thought of the same exact theory and it makes sense. I don't think they have control over what drops for you I just think they weigh down some items so RNG most likely won't give it to you
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Dude I got a gally drop today in Crota
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Funny you say this because this game is just throwing suros and icebreakers at me lately. Missing the Gally and Hawkmoon also.
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Classic example of overthinking it. Tl;dr: it's random
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How about no, Scott.
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Only missing hawkmoon Keep getting tons of Suros (8 atm) Me > hawkmoon - have 3 thunderlord Friend > thunderlord - have 3 hawkmoon
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Edited by MafiaNoFear: 2/19/2015 11:58:20 AMThere is a very good reason that some people keep getting the same exotic drops. [spoiler]It's random[/spoiler]
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I've always thought this, in fact it just makes too much sense to me. I really think that while everything in this game is in fact rng, it's heavily weighted rng for bungies agenda. I mean plenty of people only still grind out this game for the last few items they can't seem to get, I get vex mythoclast like every 3-4th atheon kill while my friend who has done atheon like 2.5x more than me remains vexless.