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Edited by Mortug:
2/19/2015 4:53:35 PM
429
Behold the reason Gjallarhorn, Thunderlord and many other weapons wont drop for YOU
Most of us are blinded by the holiness of RNGsus. But I'm a sceptic and a non-believer, so I have a theory of why YOU wont get a certain weapon, but others will.
Now, we all think that it's all based on RNG, but I don't really think so. I do understand the concept of randomness, but I don't believe that's a fact in this concern.
I am gonna use two examples:
Player 1:
- has Thunderlord and Gjallarhorn
- want Ice Breaker and SUROS
Player 2:
- has SUROS and Ice Breaker
- want Thunderlord and Gjallarhorn
Player 1 and 2 keeps on grinding for their wanted weapons, but usually get random crap drops. And to top that, they get multiple drops of the exotics they already have. (like me, i've gotten 3 No Land Beyond from Crota)
And this is where my theory comes in...
Bungie has a system (fixed RNG), that basicly makes it (nearly) impossible for you to get the weapons you are missing. It's like your profile is assigned to certain weapons. Me, I get SUROS all the time.
So a simple example for this system would be:
"Drops assigned to Player 1: Thunderlord, Gjallarhorn etc" (these are the drops always handed out)
"Drops avoided for Player 1: Ice Breaker, SUROS, etc" ( these are the drops that might never happen)
(same with Player 2,3,4,5,6,7, infinity)
I know there are many RNGsus followers out there, and by all means, praise him! But me, I'm not fooled by this non-sense anymore. Just like anything else, Bungie likes to control the community, so they control RNG as well.
Yeah, I know, Bungie started selling Ice Breaker, which was hard to get for many of us. But that was also their decision. Why do you think it became available shortly after CE? To soothe the masses to keep them playing.
Conclusion: Players will always get the same drops, and will most likely never get that one thing they are missing (in my case Gjallarhorn).
Hope i made sense. I've been thinking about this for a long time, but never been able to put a word to it. Maybe i wasn't able now either... I might be wrong, but I'm sure my points makes it clear enough.
[b]*edit 1*[/b]
I see many say they have all Exotics, and asks me to explain that. Well, that's cause Bungie decided that your profile, amongst others, could. That's why.
[b]*edit 2*[/b]
*sigh* This wasn't actually meant to be a post about weapons never dropping, cause they can. It's just that it is controlled by Bungie. Sure, some of you have played for 500 hours and finally gotten a certain weapon. But because the community is continously growing, Bungie decides to hand out X amount of, ie, GHs a day, but still manage to control the weapon flow.
[b]*edit 3*[/b]
People seem to be believe I'm saying stuff never drops. If it says that somewhere in my post (I've tried to reword myself), that's not what I'm saying. Please, read my post over again, especially "edit 2".
[b]*edit 4*[/b]
Well, I expected a lot of flaming since my so called theory is far fatched, flawed and simply crappy :P
I've tried my best to answer most posts I've seen fit. Thankfully most have been serious posts. Some not.
I am now going to get a beer and my whisky bottle, sit down, and play some Strikes. Will check in later to see if this is still alive.
Hopefully I will prove myself wrong and get GH tonight... hrhrhhr
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4 RepliesLet's say you have a bowl with 50 M&Ms in it, 5 each of 10 different colors. You blindly remove 1 at a time, and after pulling 40 of them from the bowl, you have duplicates of 9 colors, but only 9 colors. Does this mean the good folks who make M&Ms control what colors you get? No. It means you had a pool of 10 colors, and need to pull 41 M&Ms to get each color. Just because something is in the bowl, it does not guarantee your going to get it.
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It wouldn't surprise me. I have 2 Hard Crota completions and have gotten everything besides the sparrow and fang. There's guys out there that have run it 50+ times and not get that lucky. And How's about tossing in a tl;dr saying: It's your belief that each player has an individualized loot table that has different weight for drops. There are also those that get extremely lucky and get their low-weight items.
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*puts on tinfoil hat* Am I doing it right?
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Slot machines? Ever heard of them? You have been playing a digitalized slot machine. No rhythm or reason, no method to the madness. Random. Just like a slot machine.
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Just mad you can't get an exotic
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Each player gets assigned a loot table that has weighted options......but eventually you get everything so what was the op point?
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1 ReplyDifferent exotics are weighted differently. That's why GHorn has only been sold once, and NLB has been sold a bunch. It's their weighting
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LOL! The game does not "KNOW" what you wan't m8.
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1 ReplyHow about, we kill Bungie, and give destiny to apple
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I've every exotic available weapons and armor for the xbox
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I think you've got a point there. I always get No Land Beyond. It's the only exotic that drops for me.
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I don't think Bungie uses RNG. I've thought this for months now because I play with the same group of people every week. We all get the same guns every week. I've gotten 6-9 duplicates of multiple exotics. The only way to truly get a sense of how the guns are being distributed is by playing every week for months with the same groups of people. Which is what we have done. If Bungie was truly using a random number generator, it would be similar to your team throwing dice every week for months. That sounds fair, only everyone we play with is throwing the same dice numbers every week. That's pretty improbable. For those who have every exotic, it isn't crazy to think Bungie used a system that broke everyone into 3 groups. No one except the designers know for sure. But I highly doubt a person can play since the first day this game came out and not have a certain weapon. Not to mention most people at this point have 3 characters and are doing both raids 3 times each + Nightfalls. I still love this game, I just don't think it uses RNG.
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Now that I think of it. I've never gotten an RNG ice breaker or plan c.
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3 RepliesThen I must be lucky because I am roughly about 550-600 hours in the game and I am only missing The Last Word. I somehow managed to get Thunderlord, Truth, and Red Death yesterday which was 3 out of the 4 exotic weapons I was missing. WHOO! LETS GO LAST WORD!
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known this for a long time. keeps drop rates looking just fine what folks don't get about that number is the same guy just got his 5th gally to drop. Keeps the numbers of weapons down while drop rates look normal. Keep them pulling on the lever. There is no random in the random. Says the guy with two thunderloard drops so far.
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Edited by monteith86: 4/7/2015 4:38:29 AMi wonder if deleting certain weapons will help promote the drop of other weapons we have been so desperately chasing....
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I assume this would apply to raid weapons as well. Your theory does make sense, i also believe it might also have to do with the times of day you play. When I get odd ball days off work and raid, say early morning instead of in the evenings when I normaly do, I have gotten drops I never got before and haven't since
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Why have I only ever had Plan C Drop for me once and never anything else. I also think that Xûr is in place to try and sooth some people by selling items they need.
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Op is right, it certainly feels this way. I'll be happy if I'm proved wrong and montecarlo finaly drops, seen it plenty times but not on me ;(
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I kinda agree with the concept of distribution control, just not in the way you put it. Do I think the Gjallarhorn has a lower drop rate than say a Plan C? Yes. But I believe its in the values not predetermined before you ever start the game. I feel as though the game boosts weaker players by giving them the much needed drops first. Also I feel when a gun is first introduced, no matter how weak or strong it may be, it will be more readily available than months later. My experience: Our first HM run. 5 out of 6 in our fireteam got the Abyss and Oversoul. One only got the oversoul. Next week it was like 3 or 4 abyss drops and 2 oversouls. Now a friend who wasn't a part of that group wants the Abyss and we run multiple HMs a week and he still cant get it. I feel as though the drop rate has decreased significantly.
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only exotic left for me is ghorn and I have gotten every other exotic weapon 2+ times (thunderlord 7+, IB 5+, Vex 4+, Suros 3+) and closing in on 750 hours.. jesus haha It def seems there is some sort of pattern where weapons and armor keep repeating themselves once dropped or bought from xur. For instance, Praxic Fire was sold by xur two weeks ago. I buy one Friday, get a legendary chest engram later that night, and turn in to cryptbish for another praxic fire...seems odd to happen that soon after. Not trying to make this into a rant because I love this game and even if ghorn dropped I would continue to play with my buddies. It's just almost bungie knows certain gun/armor have a power lust from players which ultimately will make players come back for more.. there is no other reason for me to be hitting the gorgon chest and atheon 3x a week still... I guess i'll keep chasing the mythical unihorn each week watching it drop again & again for players that already have it, including crucible drops hah smh
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3 RepliesThis is what I've had in the back of my mind forever. I'm missing Thunderlord and Nechrochasm and I have over a 1000 hours. I think it might have been an intentional design to keep people playing more. As awful as it is, it does keep people playing.
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I don't really care for Thunderlord.
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For me, it seems when I don't play as much I get a new toy to level up. Aaaaand it may just be all im my head also.
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Edited by Jeepack: 3/1/2015 8:54:33 PMNot that anyone will care, but still putting it out there. If the rng loot system was completly random, all this would be normal because of math. You have 17 exotics, maybe a 1/20 chance at one per drop. With 3 characters that's potentially at least 15 potential drops per week. So 15/20 or 75% chance of an exotic dropping for you each week if you complete all tasks. If you are like me and are really only looking for one thing (suros) then the odds of getting it every week is 75% times 1/17. (This doesn't even account for the fact that some exotics are probably more rare than others, as the gjall ans suros don't drop as often as NLB maybe). So assuming all exos have the same drop rate which is probably not the case, you still only have roughly 1/23 as odds of getting it this week. Which is roughly 4%. So you have a maximum, and probably less, of a 4% chance of getting your ONE exo this week, same next week, same next week. Now what are the odds of you not getting it in the next 3 months? 96% to the power of 13 is roughly 59%. Nothing in the next 6 months? Roughly 35%. So grinding for 6 months straight with 3 characters and not getting the one exo you want? So there was already a 35% chance of that happening... Not that special considering how many people are playing... My point is that once you get to the point where you want only 1 or 2 things from rng, the odds of getting them are already so small that you should contemplate the possibility of not getting them anytime soon...
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The rate at which exotics drop is probably an algorithm tied to the number of active players in the game world in order to keep exotics from becoming common. Also like gambling the more you play the more likely you increase your chances of getting exotics. Vice versa, the gambling also means every once in a while someone will get lucky. But Bungie plays with the drop ratio for individual items by adjusting the weight of the drop. That's why No Land Beyond drops so much because it has a much higher weight than Red Death. So, the algorithm will drop more NLBs to keep the drop rate constant, but it can't drop more Ice Breakers or Gallys or Red Deaths especially as new drops. The algorithm must have a bug where if you already have an exotic it's okay to drop it more for you because it doesn't change the overall rate of new drops for number of players in the game world. That's why people tend to get more of the exotics they already have as opposed to exotics they don't. Just my opinion not based on hard statistical evidence just game play experience in other RNG games and my experience in Vegas.
